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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Unemployment Number Went Down Because Fewer People are in the Labor Force

Below is the full transcript from a segment of the Rush Limbaugh Show this past Friday:

RUSH: Let me just tell you about the unemployment number. You've been paying attention to this. I want to remind you, for the past two or three months, when I have been trying to explain the correlation between the shrinking labor force to the unemployment number, I have had, I can't tell you, how many people sending me notes saying, "You're wrong. You're missing this. You're using the wrong calculation. You don't know what you're talking about."

I've tried to say the reason the unemployment number can go down when they add people to the unemployment rolls is that the universe of jobs is shrinking. There are fewer jobs against which to compare those out of work, the labor force participation rate. And now not even the AP and the other State-Controlled Media can hide it. They're all admitting it now. We've got this number, there are fewer people looking for work, fewer people in the labor force. We've got an unemployment rate that fell from 8.3 to 8.2%. But if the workforce participation rate were the same as it was when Obama took office, this 8.2% rate would be 10.8 today, if the same number of jobs existed.

But that many more were not being filled because people aren't looking for them anymore. What's happened is that Obama and his team have simply erased over two million jobs from the universe of possible jobs to get. I've never understood why people argue with me about this. "You don't know what you're talking about." The obvious question, "Why do we care about job growth?" Why are we worried about creating new jobs, then? We're worried about creating new jobs because jobs are disappearing, and so are people looking for work. There are two things happening. Fewer people are looking for jobs, and there are fewer jobs to have. This is how the regime does it. You eliminate the total number of jobs from the statistical calculation altogether.

The AP has even caught onto this. The media realizes that this is not good. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is claiming the unemployment rate's gone down another one tenth of 1%. But even AP has to admit that it's not because of hiring. The employment rate fell not because anybody's hiring anybody. It's only because more and more people are simply giving up looking for work. AP even admits it. They're not touting this as great news. That's how bad it is, 8.3 to 8.2, they have an open template here, if they want, to start talking about how great this recovery is, how wonderful Obama's policies are finally taking hold. But they can't because there isn't any good news here. It's only because more and more people are simply giving up looking for work. And this is the seasonally adjusted number.

I have another story here that illustrates how every month we get a revision that is never reported. The number today will be revised upward in a month, and that has happened 11 out of the last 12 months. It's the same thing with the economic growth rate. They report it, then they revise it sometime later, and it's never as strong or as good as they said it was. But all you really need to know here is this: If the workforce participation rate, the labor force participation rate were the same as it was when Obama took office, the reported unemployment rate today would be 10.9%. And that's why the workforce has to be tweaked by the Labor Department, to get to 8.2. It's very simple. If you take over two million jobs out of the universe but don't change the number of people looking, you're gonna have, obviously, a higher level of reported employment.

Please, click the link above to see the links Rush supplies to defend his argument.

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